Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION, cilt.19, sa.1, ss.65-81, 2025 (SCI-Expanded)
The effects of climate change on crop yields are anticipated to be significant. This study evaluates the potential impacts of climate change on cotton and maize yields in K & imath;r & imath;khan, T & uuml;rkiye. In order to estimate temperature and precipitation changes in both the near (2020-2060) and far future (2060-2100) periods, downscaled global climate model (GCM) outputs were used. These outputs were derived based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The projected climate data were then used in the AquaCrop crop yield simulation model. The results indicate an estimated temperature increase of 2.2 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C for SSP2-4.5, and 2.6 degrees C and 5.4 degrees C for SSP5-8.5 in the near and far future periods, respectively. In addition, annual precipitation is estimated to decrease in both scenarios. According to the AquaCrop model simulations, yield declines were estimated for cotton and maize under both scenarios. The estimated yield losses for cotton in the near and far future periods are 4% and 9% for SSP2-4.5, 8% and 19% for SSP5-8.5, respectively. Maize yield losses for the same periods are estimated to be 10% and 14% for SSP2-4.5, and 16% and 30% for SSP5-8.5, respectively. These findings highlight the potential threat of climate change to agricultural productivity in K & imath;r & imath;khan. Given the estimated yield losses, proactive measures to mitigate climate change and develop adaptation strategies are crucial to ensuring future agricultural sustainability in the region.