Dynamic responses to energy transportation uncertainty: evidence from maritime freight markets, oil volatility, and global industrial production
MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1057/s41278-026-00367-2
- Dergi Adı: MARITIME ECONOMICS & LOGISTICS
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, INSPEC, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest), Materials Science & Engineering Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Hatay Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study examines the dynamic relationships between global energy transportation uncertainty, maritime tanker freight rates, oil market volatility, and global industrial production. Using monthly data from February 2000 to November 2025, the analysis employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV), complemented by wavelet coherence analysis. The results show that positive shocks to energy transportation uncertainty are associated with higher values of the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, indicating that periods of elevated transportation uncertainty tend to coincide with stronger responses in maritime freight markets. The estimated impulse responses also show a persistent positive association between energy transportation uncertainty and oil market volatility, implying that transportation-related disruptions are accompanied by heightened uncertainty in oil markets. In contrast, global industrial production exhibits negative responses following shocks to energy transportation uncertainty, indicating that periods of elevated transportation uncertainty are associated with weaker industrial activity. The magnitude of these responses varies over time and becomes more pronounced during major episodes of global economic and geopolitical stress, including the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The wavelet coherence analysis further reveals statistically significant time-frequency co-movements among the variables, supporting the presence of evolving dynamic interrelationships across different time horizons.