Does Climate Change Cause an Upsurge in Food Prices?

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ERDOĞAN S., Kartal M. T., PATA U. K.

Foods, cilt.13, sa.1, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 13 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3390/foods13010154
  • Dergi Adı: Foods
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, CAB Abstracts, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: climate change, food prices, heatflation, Nigeria, non-linear methods
  • Hatay Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Climate change is the reason behind most contemporary economic problems. The rising inflationary pressures in the food sector are one of these problems, and stable food prices are a necessity for economic development and social cohesion in societies. Therefore, this study analyzes the relationship between food prices and climate change in Nigeria by using various non-linear and quantile-based methods and data from 2008m5 to 2020m12. The empirical findings indicate that (i) there is a time- and frequency-based dependence between food prices and some explanatory variables, including climate change (i.e., temperature). (ii) At higher quantiles, temperature, oil prices, food exports, monetary expansion, global food prices, agricultural prices, and fertilizer prices stimulate food prices. (iii) The increase in food prices due to the rise in temperature and the difficulties in agriculture indicate that the heatflation phenomenon is present in Nigeria. The evidence outlines that Nigerian decisionmakers should adopt a national food security policy that considers environmental, agricultural, and monetary factors to stabilize food prices.