Digital growth, structural changes, energy transitions, and sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from the load capacity curve
ECONOMIC CHANGE AND RESTRUCTURING, cilt.59, sa.5, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 59 Sayı: 5
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s10644-026-10060-2
- Dergi Adı: ECONOMIC CHANGE AND RESTRUCTURING
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, Geobase, Social Science Premium Collection (ProQuest), Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest), Pharma Collection (ProQuest)
- Hatay Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Balancing economic growth with ecological sustainability remains a major challenge for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) amid rapid digitalization, urbanization, and structural transformation. This study examines the effects of information and communication technologies (ICT), energy transition, urbanization, and structural change on ecological sustainability in the 20 most populous SSA countries from 2000 to 2022. Unlike conventional studies that focus solely on carbon emissions, this analysis uses the load capacity factor (LCF), which captures the balance between ecological demand and environmental carrying capacity. Grounded in the load capacity curve (LCC), the study applies second-generation panel econometric techniques that account for cross-sectional dependence across countries. The findings confirm the validity of the LCC hypothesis, indicating that ecological quality initially deteriorates during the early stages of economic growth, but improves as income rises. ICT development reduces ecological sustainability, suggesting that the environmental costs of digital expansion currently outweigh its ecological benefits in SSA. In contrast, urbanization, structural change, and energy transition policies do not have statistically significant effects on environmental quality. Robustness analyses using dynamic common correlated effects estimators confirm the consistency of the results. The findings underscore the need for green ICT strategies and sustainability-oriented development policies to strengthen ecological resilience in SSA.